What is 2019 going to store for the real estate market in the GTA? Will there be calm and chaos? The big question now is how much will interest rates rise and will there be a correction in 2019?

As the holidays are looming upon us it is time to look back on 2018 and head into 2019 with some enlightening tips and trends to look forward to. Like each passing year, 2018 was filled with its fair share of ups and downs. What is 2019 going to store for the real estate market in the GTA? Will there be calm and chaos? The big question now is how much will interest rates rise and will there be a correction in 2019?

Affordability

This year the Toronto real estate market was heavily influenced by the mortgage stress test and rising interest rates. Affordability has also become an issue for first time buyers:

• with the average sale price for the City of Toronto coming in at $842,483 at the end of November.

Renting

Renters are also struggling for accommodation:

• The average one-bedroom condo rose 9.5% to $2,163 and with rent controls and builder discouragement, new construction will dry up leading to higher rents and lower vacancy rates.

Low housing supply

Low housing supply will continue to be an issue in the new year. At the end of November, TREB posted 73,677 sales year-to-date, and with one month to go we will be lucky if we hit 78,000! The last time we saw levels in this range was 2003 and 2008.

Interest Rates

Whether the banks raise interest rates in the new year, the uncertainty appears to be making consumers hesitant. Compared to the record pace of home appreciation seen in 2016 and 2017, the GTA housing market is now positioned for a much healthier and sustainable growth in the future.

Predictions are the housing market will maintain the status quo or could experience a slight growth in prices and sales in 2019.

A return to a more balanced market that sees properties listed for a duration of time, we might need to go back to a more conventional way of approaching a deal and using the concept of negotiating.

End of year re-cap

The end of the year, however, saw some slowing down in the number of sales, a tendency that appears to stay with us for the coming months: according to the Toronto Real Estate Board November 2018 Market Watch the GTA saw:

Transactions

• 6,251 residential transactions through the MLS® System in November 2018. This result was down by 14.7 per cent compared to November 2017, when we saw a temporary upward shift in demand as the market was distorted by the looming OSFI-mandated stress test at the end of last year.

Average Selling Prices

• On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were down by 3.4 per cent compared to October 2018. The average selling price after preliminary seasonal adjustment was down by 0.8 per cent compared to October 2018.

People will continue to move for the usual reasons. Whether they are downsizing, retiring, leaving town, and if incomes, jobs and population growth evolve stably, the housing markets are expected to respond accordingly. The spirit of optimism in Toronto will conquer all.

Merry Christmas and A Happy New Year To Us All!