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Market Update: September 2019

Market Update: September 2019

Toronto New Condo Prices Rise, While Detached Losses Get Bigger

Greater Toronto new home sales are picking up, but buyers are mixed on prices. Altus Group data shows new home sales across Greater Toronto made a double digit climb in July. Even with the rise in sales, trade volumes are still light this year. Prices followed with a mixed move – condo prices accelerating gains, and detached prices falling further.

New Toronto Detached Real Estate Prices Fall, While Condos Rise

Greater Toronto new home prices are falling, except in the condo apartment segment. The benchmark price of a new single-family home fell to $1,091,727 in July, down 4.5% from last year. The decline works out to ~$8,000 lower than the month before, and the rate of decline increased from 3%. New single-family homes have been trending lower in price in for a few months now.

New condo apartments got a boost last month, with prices even accelerating gains. The new condo benchmark reached $838,824 in July, up 8.3% from last year. The increase is a sudden acceleration of the 12-month growth, which was up 3.9% the month before. Fast rising condo prices and a sluggish detached market is also being seen in home resales.

Toronto New Home Sales Are Flat, But The Suburbs Are Soaring

New home sales jumped higher in Greater Toronto, but the rise was mostly in the 905. New home sales reached 2,863 units in July, up 35.11% from last year. Breaking that down, single family homes represented 566 of the sales, up 135% from last year. Condo apartments represent the remaining 2,297 units, up 22.24% from last year. Further refining that number by region, we see most of the bump in sales in the suburbs – not the City of Toronto.

Greater Toronto New Home Sales

Source: Altus Group

New home sales in the City of Toronto were basically flat last month. There were 1,568 sales in July, up 0.19% from the same month last year. Breaking it down, there were 46 new single-family homes sold, up 475% from last year. Condo apartments represent the other 1,522 sales, down 2.24% from last year. The single-family increase would be impressive if it wasn’t such a low volume. Most important, this highlights most growth is coming from the suburbs.

 

 

Toronto’s condo market is continuing its parabolic price move higher. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers shows prices reached a new all-time high in July. Sales of condo apartments failed to make a seasonal decline in July. This applied more pressure to prices, as inventory made the usual drop. The result was more pressure on prices to rise, with the rate of price growth rising to the highest level in months.

 

Toronto Condo Prices Reach New All-Time High

The price of a condo apartment in Greater Toronto continues its parabolic move. TREB reported the benchmark, a.k.a. typical apartment, reached $543,100 in July, up 8.41% from last year. The City of Toronto benchmark reached $574,700, up 8.32% from last year. Both numbers are new all-time highs according to the benchmark.

 

Toronto Benchmark Condo Price

The price of a “typical” condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA

The benchmark’s annual rate of growth is improving. Both TREB’s 8.41% and the City of Toronto’s 8.32% increase are higher than the month before. This is only the second month it’s increased, so technically the deceleration trend isn’t broken. However, it’s still the highest rate of growth since December 2018. Price increases may be slowing down, but growth is still very high.

 

Toronto Median Condo Sale Price

The median sale price of a condo apartment in Toronto.

Source: CREA

The average sale price also made a similar move for Greater Toronto apartments. TREB reported an average sale price of $584,019 in July, up 6.7% from last year. The City of Toronto average reached $627,927, up 7.7% from last year. The average isn’t adjusted for size, so this is better used as a proxy for dollar flow.

 

Toronto Average Condo Sale Price

The average sale price of condo apartments in Toronto, and the suburbs.

Source: CREA

 

Condo Apartment Sales Make Unusual July Increase

Toronto condo apartment sales made a big jump, and an unusual monthly rise. TREB reported 2,277 sales in July, up 13.73% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,617 of those sales, up 14.28% from last year. Sales aren’t yet back to 2015 levels for the month, but the price movement is much stronger. This is also one of the rare times July sales increased from June. Sales typically decline from June to July, but this wasn’t the case in Toronto or Vancouver this year.

 

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